LAS VEGAS — President Donald Trump did not impose tariffs on trade partners on the first day of his second term, but he did threaten new tariffs on Canada and Mexico by Feb. 1. Instead, he issued an order calling for a review of US trade relationships with Canada, China and Mexico.
The order alleviated immediate fears of uncertain trade disruptions that had been outlined by the president during the campaign against former-President Joe Biden.
“A lot was said during the campaign and there has been a lot of talk about tariffs,” said Mario A. Torrico, an associate attorney for the law firm ArentFox Schiff, during an education session Jan. 19 at the Winter Fancy Food Show in Las Vegas. “First, he started with universal tariffs and in that case anywhere between 10% to 20% duties would be imposed. If we were operating under that scenario there would be no mitigation strategies, really, because everyone would be impacted.
“But then he proposed tariffs on China, specifically, of anywhere between 60% to 100%,” Torrico added. “Now, in recent pronouncements, he said that maybe it should be 10% to 20%. So, that’s kind of the backdrop with China. And now his focus has been on Mexico and Canada and imposing anywhere from 10% to 25%.”
Torrico said a challenge facing businesses that may be affected by the imposition of tariffs is what authority the president may use to implement them.
“There is a statutory authority, IEPA, that has never been used, but in recent reporting Trump has said he wants to use that authority,” Torrico said. “And under IEPA he could implement tariffs very fast.”
IEPA is the International Emergency Powers Act and to implement it the president would have to declare a national emergency.
“Once that is declared congressional oversight is little to none,” Torrico said. “There is a reporting requirement (in the act of) every six months. And Congress could, say after six months, (issue) a joint resolution … but if he uses that authority then it’s a lot of authority.”
Other tools available to the president include section 301, which involves tariffs on countries that are in violation of fair-trade practices. President Trump used section 301 during his first term to impose some tariffs on China. There is also section 232, which allows the president to impose tariffs on specific goods.
If President Trump used section 232, it would trigger an investigation by the Department of Commerce to make specific findings. The whole process would take up to 270 days before tariffs could be implemented.
“301 is a little different,” Torrico said. “You have to allow the US Trade Representative to make findings as to an unfair trade practice. I would say it would take six months.”
Speaking the day before President Trump was inaugurated, Torrico made several predictions about how he thought the new administration would approach trade and tariffs. His first prediction — that the administration would not do anything immediately — was correct.
“I think there is going to be a waiting phase to see how countries react,” he said.
Additionally, he predicted the president would declare a national emergency and invoke IEPA.
“If he uses IEPA he can craft the tariffs the way he wants,” he said.
But overall, Torrico said he sees much of the discussion about the imposition of tariffs as a negotiating tactic and what ultimately happens will depend on how the governments of Canada, China, Mexico and any other country that is threatened responds.
Using the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement as an example, Torrico said the agreement can be reviewed and revised in 2026, and that President Trump wants to renegotiate the agreement.
“We’ll have to hold on and see what happens,” he said.
Increasing tariffs on these countries could significantly impact the pet food industry. These countries are currently the United States’ top export markets for dog and cat food, and agriculture groups are concerned about potential retaliation.
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